[Citi] Stablecoins 2030

Stablecoins issuance volume figures are revised,

$ 1.9 trillion by 2030 – Base case (earlier estimate was $ 1.6 trillion, Apr-25)
$ 4.0 trillion by 2030 – Bull case (earlier $ 3.7 trillion, Apr-25)

Annual turnover forecast being $ 100 – 140 trillion by 2030.

Why revised?

Background: US passed GENIUS Act in Jul-2025 and, “$ 3.7 trillion market by end of decade” posted by US secretary of treasury on X.
Top 3 Reasons:
1. Surge in stablecoin supply, avg supply = $ 280 billion in Sep-2025 (up from $ 200 billion)
2. Institutional adoption = 0.5 on a scale of 1 to 10,
3. Increased volume = $1 trillion per month in Aug 2025, double from last year and it is up 40% this year due to executive orders passed in the US.

Assumptions:

Assuming a reallocation of short-term liquidity similar to the 1970s offshore eurodollar market’s rapid expansion (45% of the base case above).
20% continued stablecoin issuance run rate of the past 3 years (40% of base case).
10% substitution of U.S. banknotes held overseas into stablecoins, similar to gold ETFs, which captured nearly 8% of the investible gold bars and coins market. (15% base case).
5% of $ 1.7 quadrillion (in bank tokens) global large value payment volumes by 2030.
Approx 90% to be dollar-denominated

Basis:

Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume
- $ 7.6 trillion in 2023
- $ 18.4 trillion in 2024 (140% YoY increase)
Velocity (Total volume / Avg supply)
- 60x times in 2023
- 113x times in 2024

Why do we need on-chain money?

Even though it may not deliver meaningful impact for the large corporations enjoying favourable relationships like, lower tx fees, tighter fx spreads and faster settlements.
More impactful for retail and SME / SMBs for cross border payments.
Collateral management is one of the best use cases, because of programmability.

What’s the Global outlook?

PayPal’s own stablecoin (PayPal USD) in 2023.
E-Commerce giants such as Alibaba and JD.com are actively exploring the issuance of their own HKD-denominated stablecoins, owing to the Hong Kong stablecoin legislations, effective from 1 August 2025.
Market keen for the issuance of yuan/offshore yuan-based stablecoins.
Walmart and Amazon are exploring the issuance of proprietary stablecoins.
Rush to build new layer-1s is seen from companies like Circle, Stripe, Bitfinex, Tether, and Alchemy Pay.

Challenges to Overcome for Wider Adoption

Fragmentation and interoperability
Privacy and obfuscation
- But powerful solutions are emerging – ZK proofs and privacy-focused L2s.
Scalability, liquidity and trust
Accounting treatment, catalyst if IAS 7 (cash equivalent), and less attractive if IAS 32 (financial instrument)
Systems integration and organizational inertia
Geopolitical considerations: Divergent national strategies -Stablecoins vs CBDCs.