This article is a short summary of research delves into the intricate relationship between tokenomics and the price performance of newly launched tokens. By analyzing 40 major token launches from the first four months of 2025, we explore how specific tokenomic factors influence short- and medium-term price returns.
Key Insights for Sustainable Tokenomics
Maximize Community Allocation
- Projects in the top tertile of community‐token share delivered the highest median returns at 1 week (~120 %), 1 month (~350 %), and current (~200 %).
- “Go big or go home”: 30-47% community allocations added volatility without prominent upside. Either go low, or go high.
Set a Lower Launch Price
- Tokens priced below $0.075 outperformed higher‐priced launches across all timeframes, with statistically significant differencesH
- It seems that lower prices create more room to run psychologically and tend to attract stronger initial and long-term returns.
Don’t Stress Over Insider Share
- Neither linear correlations nor group comparisons showed any meaningful link between insider allocations and price performance
- Still, you should focus on prioritizing your project’s goals and integrity. Structure the insider allocations to align interests without surrendering control over your project
Circulating-Supply Unlocks Have Little Impact
- Changes in circulating supply (fast vs. slow unlocks) did not produce significant differences in returns, even after outlier treatment and robust regression
- While transparency on unlock schedules remains best practice, aggressive or conservative unlocks alone won’t influence the market considerably post-launch
Prioritize Clear Tokenomic
One project had to be dropped from our analysis due to uncertain distribution details. Lack of clarity weakens investor confidence. Publicly document allocation percentages, vesting cliffs, and unlock timelines to build trust and reduce perceived risk.